Climate indices#

The climate component offers an overview of climate indices related to hydro-meteorological hazards based on the most updated information (CMIP6). The related tool provides aggregated statistics at boundary level (country or subnational level) for a selection of:

  1. climate-related hazards

  2. country

  3. time periods

The data can be aggregated:

  • across time (20 years windows) for representation of spatial distribution at sub-national level (Map output)

    ADM1_mean(Ensemble_p50(Period_mean(anomaly/hist_SD)))
    ../_images/ci_adm.png

    Fig. 40 Example of mean standardardised anomaly (ensemble median) plotted for one climate index over Pakistan, period 2040-2060, 3 SSP scenarios - mean for subnational unit.#

  • across space (country boundaries) for time-series representation (Chart output)

    Ensemble_p10(ADM0_mean(anomaly/hist_SD))
Ensemble_p50(ADM0_mean(anomaly/hist_SD))
Ensemble_p90(ADM0_mean(anomaly/hist_SD))
    ../_images/ci_tseries.png

    Fig. 41 Example of mean standardardised anomaly (ensemble median) plotted for one climate index over Pakistan, time-series up to 2100, 3 SSP scenarios - mean at country level.#

The table summarises the relevant climate indices and related time scale.

Name

Description

Time-scale

R10mm

Days with rainfall > 10 mm [days]

Annual

Rx5day

Maximum 5-day precipitation [mm]

Monthly

R99p

Extremely wet day precipitation [days]

Monthly

CWD

Consecutive Wet Days [days/month]

Annual

CDD

Consecutive Dry Days [days/month]

Annual

slr

Sea Level Rise [m]

Annual

SPEI

Standard Precipitation-EvapoT Index [-]

Annual

Heat

WBGT or UTCI [°C] - bias adjusted

Daily

tmean

Mean surface temperature [°C]

Monthly

Input data#

The climate indices are primarily sourced from the WB Cimate Change Knowledge Portal. Additional indice such as drought indices are obtained from external sources.

Sources of CMIP6 data#

Name

Developer

Description

Data format

Climate Knowledge portal

World Bank

Large selection of climate indices for both trends and extremes

Table, geodata, charts

Climate Extreme Indices (CDS)

UNDRR

Full selection of variables, model members, periods

Geodata

IPCC atlas

IPCC

Selection of climate variables for a range of periods and scenario

Table, geodata, maps, charts

Global Drought Indices

CEDA

Global high-resolution drought datasets from 1981-2022

Geodata

Dimensions:#

  • SSP: socio-climatic scenarios SSP1/RCP2.6, SSP2/RCP4.5, SSP3/RCP7.0, SSP5/RCP8

  • Models ensemble range: percentiles p10, p50, p90

  • Period: {Historical (1981-2015)}, [Near term (2020-2039), Medium term (2040-2059), Long term (2060-2079), End of century (2080-2099)]

  • Time scale: Annual (R10mm, CWD, slr, SPEI); Monthly (Rxday, R99p, tmean); Daily (Heat)

  • Value statistic: {P10, P50, P90, SD}, [P10, P50, P90]

Script setup [WIP]#

Processing#

  • Runs over one selected country and for a specific set of indices depending on selected hazard

  • Consider four SSP-RCP scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7.0; SSP5-8.5)

  • Consider four 20-years periods (near term, medium term, long term, end of century)

  • Calculate median, 10th percentile (p10) and 90th percentile (p90) of standardised anomaly across models in the ensemble (more details)

  • Plot maps and timeseries

  • Exported results as multi-tab excel (table) and multi-layer geopackage (vector)